IHS predicts nearly 21 million autonomous car sales in 2035

August 22, 2016

concept of a self-driving modern car , 3d illustration

New research from IHS Automotive suggests there will be many more autonomous cars on the road in the next few decades than they previously thought.

The automotive research firm forecasts that there will be nearly 21 million vehicles with some degree of autonomy sold globally in 2035 alone. This is a much higher estimate than IHS has made previously, and they cite the research and development by companies both inside and outside of the automotive industry.

IHS is projecting that in the 19 years leading up to 2035, there will be nearly 76 million autonomous vehicles sold.

“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. and director of  research at IHS Automotive, said in a news release.

“Our new forecast reflects a 43% compound annual growth rate between 2025 & 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets.”

The firm also predicts that the United States will be the earliest adopters of autonomous vehicles, especially as ride sharing and car sharing programs gain popularity in the country. Japan could be another site for investment into the industry as they prepare for the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, when autonomous vehicles will likely be on the market worldwide.

IHS has taken in all sorts of research before making this prediction. They cite “discussions and initiatives among [automotive] OEMs and their suppliers, between OEMs and ridesharing companies, technology company initiatives and increased investment in autonomy and mobility by other entities as well.”

While the United States will most likely adopt the technology first, with more than 4 million autonomous vehicles projected to be sold in 2035, IHS expects China to be a dominant region for these vehicles.

As the single largest market for technology, China will have a projected 5.7 million autonomous vehicle sales in 2035, IHS predicts.

“Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive.

“IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities.
Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use
battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”